Breeders Cup Handicapping

With this year’s Breeders’ Cup World Thoroughbred Championships being held at Churchill Downs for a record eighth time, let’s take a look at some of the recent winners at the historic track, looking at their running style, prices, and prep races.

The Breeders’ Cup was held at the Louisville, Kentucky track in 1988, 1991, 1994, 1998, 2000, 2006, and 2010.

The Breeders’ Cup will be held this year at Churchill Downs on Nov. 4-5, 15 championship races with $26 million in purses up for grabs. Let’s look at a few of the key Breeders’ Cup races this year and the handicapper best suited to provide you with winning Breeders Cup picks in 2011:

Breeders Cup Classic Odds

Blame rallied with a four wide run and held off the late running Zenyatta last out to win and end the mare’s 19 race winning streak. Blame used the Whitney Handicap (1st) and Jockey Club Gold Cup (2nd) as his final two preps. In 2006, Invasor won the Classic at Churchill Downs, coming from off the pace. His final two preps were the Suburban (1st), and Whitney Handicap (1st).

Favorites: 8 for 27

Running Style at CD: 2 of 7 wired the field.

Euro Factor: Arccangues pulled off the upset in 1993 and Raven’s Pass won on the synthetic surface In 2008, but U.S. based runners have dominated the Classic.

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Turf

Dangerous Midge became the fifth Euro invader in the past six years to win the Turf. Red Rocks in 2006 and Kalanisi in 2000 also came from across the pond to win the Turf at Churchill Downs. Dangerous Midge used a listed stake at Newbury as his final prep for last year’s Turf, where he paid $19.00.

Favorites: 9 for 27

Running Style at CD: 2 of 7 wired the field.

Euro Factor: European invaders have won more than half of the races, including Dangerous Midge, who won last year’s Turf at Churchill Downs.

Mile

Goldikova won the Mile for the third time in a row last year at Churchill Downs, returning $4.60 for the win, with the U.S. based runners Gio Ponti and The Usual Q.T. checking in second and third. The brilliant mare used a Group 1 race at Longchamp as her final prep the past three years and plans are she is going for an unprecedented fourth this year.

Favorites: 9 for 27

Running Style: Stalkers and closers have dominated the Mile races at Churchill Downs.

Euro Factor: While Goldikova won last year’s Mile, the three previous winners at Churchill Downs were U.S. based runners: Miesque’s Approval in 2006, War Chant in 2000, and Da Hoss in 1998.

Ladies’ Classic

Unrivaled Belle rallied from off the pace to pull off the upset last year, returning $17.00 with the betting favorite Blind Luck second. The filly was second in her three starts leading into the race, the bridesmaid in the Ogden Phipps, Ruffian, and Beldame. Round Pond, the 2006 winner at Churchill Downs used the Beldame in her final prep, checking in third.

Favorites: 10 for 27

Running Style at CD: 2 of 7 wire the field, the last three were off the pace types.

Euro Factor: The Euro ladies are not a factor in this race, and most of the fillies or mares that do come over to compete in the Breeders’ Cup usually go in the turf races.

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